
A quick search of the WWW asking: "If Canadian provinces were states in the USA, which USA party would prevail in each?" — coupled with living within 150 miles of the Frozen North for about 40 years — can be summed up as follows.
First important fact not considered by the Very Large Brain: Canada is not a unitary state; it is a federation of (historically 10 now 11) provinces. Canada extends about 3,049 miles from St. John's, Newfoundland to a point at the intersection of Alaska, NW Territories and the Arctic Ocean, compared to 2,724 from Miami to Seattle or 2,696 from Bangor ME to San Diego or 2,613 from San Diego to Honolulu, with comparable differences in landforms, climate and society. (Of course I left out the 5,158 miles from Honolulu to Bangor, reasoning no one would choose that trip.)
Second: Based on the political leanings and characteristics of Canadian provinces, if they were to become U.S. states, most would likely lean Democratic. However, there would be some variations across provinces:
Quebec: Likely Democratic, but with a unique political landscape. Quebec's politics revolve around nationalism vs. federalism rather than a traditional left-right divide. The province's strong support for public healthcare and progressive policies aligns more closely with the Democratic Party.
Ontario: Strongly Democratic. As Canada's most populous province, Ontario's urban centers and generally liberal attitudes would likely translate to Democratic support.
British Columbia: Likely Democratic. The province's urban areas and environmental concerns align more with Democratic policies.
Alberta: Potentially Republican. Alberta's conservative leanings and focus on oil and gas industries might make it more receptive to Republican policies. However, it would still be more moderate than many current Republican states.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba: Leaning Democratic, but potentially competitive. These prairie provinces have a mix of rural and urban populations, which could lead to closer races.
Atlantic Provinces (New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador): Likely Democratic. These provinces generally support social programs and have a history of voting for liberal parties.
Territories (Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut): Likely Democratic, given their significant Indigenous populations and reliance on government services. (Note that the combined population of these territories barely sums to the 125,000 required by the Constitution for statehood.)
Third: It's important to note that Canadian political ideologies don't directly translate to the U.S. two-party system. Many Canadian conservatives would be considered moderate Democrats in the U.S. context. Additionally, about one-third of Canadians describe themselves as "political orphans" who find all parties too extreme, indicating a significant centrist population.
Overall, if Canadian provinces became U.S. states, they would likely add a substantial Democratic-leaning bloc to American politics, potentially shifting the balance in favor of the Democratic Party. Of course, many voters would retain their Canadian perspectives, possibly leading to a structural realignment of the continent's politics, and since only about 1/3 of US voters appear to be dyed-in-the-wool Trumpistas, one imagines that the current administration would have some 'splaining to do.