"What is the general opinion among economists worldwide of the effect of tariffs on both international trade and national economics?"
It evaluated 52 sites devoted to economic topics and answered as follows. (Ed. note: Be sure to read the comments, where the author links some other experiences with AI, starting with the widely cited ChatGPT.)
"The general opinion among economists worldwide regarding the effect of tariffs on international trade and national economics is largely negative. Here are some key points:
### Impact on International Trade
- **Disruption and Retaliation**: Tariffs often lead to trade disruptions as countries retaliate with their own tariffs. This can create a cycle of tit-for-tat measures that reduce global trade volumes. For example, when the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, China retaliated with tariffs on U.S. exports, affecting industries like agriculture and manufacturing.
- **Increased Costs and Prices**: Tariffs raise the cost of imported goods, which can lead to higher prices for consumers and businesses. This inflationary effect can reduce the purchasing power of consumers and increase production costs for businesses. A study found that tariffs on washing machines led to an aggregate increase in consumer costs of over $1.5 billion.
- **Supply Chain Disruptions**: Many modern industries rely on global supply chains. Tariffs can disrupt these supply chains, forcing companies to find alternative suppliers, which can be costly and inefficient. For example, tariffs on steel and aluminum increased input costs for downstream industries, leading to a net decrease in manufacturing employment.
### Impact on National Economics
- **Reduced Economic Growth**: Tariffs can slow economic growth by reducing trade volumes and increasing costs. A study estimated that tariffs could reduce U.S. gross domestic product by 0.6%. Another analysis found that reversing the 2018–2019 tariffs would increase U.S. output by 4% over three years.
- **Job Losses**: While tariffs may protect certain domestic industries, they can also lead to job losses in other sectors. For example, tariffs on steel and aluminum led to a net decrease in manufacturing employment, as the benefits of increased production in protected industries were outweighed by the consequences of rising input costs and retaliatory tariffs.
- **Inflation**: Tariffs can contribute to higher inflation rates, as businesses pass on the increased costs to consumers. This can erode consumer purchasing power and lead to a weaker economy. For example, tariffs on Chinese goods were almost fully passed through to U.S. import prices, resulting in higher consumer costs.
- **Uncertainty and Investment**: The uncertainty surrounding tariffs can deter business investment and job creation. Companies may delay or cancel planned investments due to the unpredictability of trade policies. This can have a negative impact on long-term economic growth and productivity.
### Exceptions and Specific Cases
- **Short-term Gains for Protected Industries**: In some cases, tariffs can provide short-term gains for specific domestic industries by reducing foreign competition. However, these gains are often outweighed by the broader negative effects on the economy.
- **Strategic Protectionism**: Some economists argue that tariffs can be used strategically to protect nascent industries or to address unfair trade practices. However, this approach is controversial and can still lead to retaliation and trade disruptions.
Overall, the consensus among economists is that tariffs generally have a negative impact on both international trade and national economics, leading to reduced growth, higher prices, and increased uncertainty."
It would seem that only a government whose intent was to foment such negative impacts would instigate a large program of tariffs, whether functional of punitive.
One might almost conclude that the objective was to weaken the national economy so as to create anxiety leading to acceptance of even more expanded government control — including non-economic aspects of society — as a "remedy" for the very issues the tariffs might have caused. Who woulda thought?
* The search AI was kimi.ai, another Asian import this week. Fast (time on task < 30 seconds), comprehensive (reviewed 52 sources), and created a comprehensive bibliography of annotated sources complete with key passages used in the report, but with less elegant output than some I've explored. I've omitted the bibliography here. My current favorite for content development is Perplexity.
Next, I asked Kimi to translate the report into Spanish. It did so and produced the text in under 30 seconds. I speak Spanish well and was able to verify the content as essentially the same, but with adaptations to Spanish writing style and vocabulary; I indeed had to look up or confirm only a couple of words, which were superior to the way I would have translated the text. You can read it below.
Finally, I revised the query, this time in Spanish, asking the program to give special attention to relations among Canada, the US and Mexico. Kimi expanded the sources to 62 and replied in < 30 seconds again, this time with most of the same structural points but also with comparative statistics germane to the current dialog among the three countries.
In recent weeks, I've begun to use this technique to prepare factual elements of written work for various publications I work on. My position is that as long as the work is factual not interpretive, identified as AI-sourced, and reviewed by a human, the time saved in literature reviews and fact searching enables one to improve one's product. The risk, of course, is that some users will pass the results off as their own research, including those students who suddenly are writing term papers with knowledge and sophistication beyond their years.
I am impressed with Kimi overall. Of course it's not on par with an analysis by Tucker Carlson or the Very Large Brain; but thank God for that.
* * *
En español, sin formato.
La opinión general entre los economistas de todo el mundo sobre el efecto de los aranceles en el comercio internacional y la economía nacional es predominantemente negativa. Aquí hay algunos puntos clave:
Impacto en el Comercio Internacional
Interrupción y Retorsión: Los aranceles a menudo provocan interrupciones comerciales, ya que los países responden con sus propios aranceles. Esto puede crear un ciclo de medidas de represalia que reduce los volúmenes de comercio global. Por ejemplo, cuando Estados Unidos impuso aranceles a los productos chinos, China respondió con aranceles sobre las exportaciones estadounidenses, afectando industrias como la agricultura y la fabricación.
Aumento de Costos y Precios: Los aranceles aumentan el costo de los bienes importados, lo que puede llevar a precios más altos para los consumidores y las empresas. Este efecto inflacionario puede reducir el poder adquisitivo de los consumidores y aumentar los costos de producción para las empresas. Un estudio encontró que los aranceles sobre las lavadoras llevaron a un aumento agregado en los costos para los consumidores de más de 1.500 millones de dólares.
Interrupción de Cadenas de Suministro: Muchas industrias modernas dependen de cadenas de suministro globales. Los aranceles pueden interrumpir estas cadenas de suministro, obligando a las empresas a encontrar proveedores alternativos, lo cual puede ser costoso e ineficiente. Por ejemplo, los aranceles sobre el acero y el aluminio aumentaron los costos de insumos para las industrias downstream, lo que llevó a una disminución neta en el empleo manufacturero.
Impacto en la Economía Nacional
Reducción del Crecimiento Económico: Los aranceles pueden ralentizar el crecimiento económico al reducir los volúmenes de comercio y aumentar los costos. Un estudio estimó que los aranceles podrían reducir el producto interno bruto (PIB) de Estados Unidos en un 0,6%. Otra análisis encontró que revertir los aranceles de 2018-2019 aumentaría la producción estadounidense en un 4% en tres años.
Pérdida de Empleos: Aunque los aranceles pueden proteger ciertas industrias domésticas, también pueden llevar a la pérdida de empleos en otros sectores. Por ejemplo, los aranceles sobre el acero y el aluminio llevaron a una disminución neta en el empleo manufacturero, ya que los beneficios de un aumento en la producción en las industrias protegidas fueron superados por las consecuencias de los costos de insumos más altos y los aranceles de represalia.
Inflación: Los aranceles pueden contribuir a tasas de inflación más altas, ya que las empresas trasladan los costos aumentados a los consumidores. Esto puede erosionar el poder adquisitivo de los consumidores y llevar a una economía más débil. Por ejemplo, los aranceles sobre los productos chinos fueron casi completamente trasladados a los precios de importación de Estados Unidos, lo que resultó en costos más altos para los consumidores.
Incertidumbre e Inversión: La incertidumbre que rodea a los aranceles puede desalentar la inversión empresarial y la creación de empleo. Las empresas pueden retrasar o cancelar inversiones planeadas debido a la imprevisibilidad de las políticas comerciales. Esto puede tener un impacto negativo en el crecimiento económico a largo plazo y en la productividad.
Excepciones y Casos Específicos
Ganancias a Corto Plazo para Industrias Protegidas: En algunos casos, los aranceles pueden proporcionar ganancias a corto plazo para ciertas industrias domésticas al reducir la competencia extranjera. Sin embargo, estos beneficios a menudo son superados por los efectos negativos más amplios en la economía.
Proteccionismo Estratégico: Algunos economistas argumentan que los aranceles pueden utilizarse estratégicamente para proteger industrias nascentes o para abordar prácticas comerciales desleales. Sin embargo, este enfoque es controvertido y aún puede llevar a represalias y interrupciones comerciales.
En resumen, el consenso entre los economistas es que los aranceles generalmente tienen un impacto negativo tanto en el comercio internacional como en la economía nacional, lo que lleva a un crecimiento reducido, precios más altos y mayor incertidumbre.
