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Government & Politics |
November 29, 2025 |
Oil extraction has minor calue for California, Florida, with large damage potential
November 29, 2025
This is part one of an analysis of Donald Trump's plan to expand offshore oil leasing near Florida and California. On first glimpse the liabilities appear to outweigh the benefits. We begin with a compilation of major activities in each state, and it is clear that oil extraction will not materially improve the lot of residents of either state, leaving one to consider other motivations.
Introduction
Based on web sources here are the ten most important economic sectors for California and Florida by dollar value and percent of GDP. Oil extraction is added despite being a small factor in state income.
Oil extraction (within “mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction”) is a small share of GDP in both states—well under 1 percent directly in Florida and on the order of 0.1–0.2 percent directly in California—so it sits far below the top ten sectors by value but can be added as an extra row. [1][2][3][4]
Oil extraction (within “mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction”) is a small share of GDP in both states—well under 1 percent directly in Florida and on the order of 0.1–0.2 percent directly in California—so it sits far below the top ten sectors by value but can be added as an extra row. [1][2][3][4]
California sectors (with oil)
California’s 2023–2024 GDP is roughly 3.4–4.0 trillion dollars; values below are rounded orders of magnitude, using BEA and derivative compilations. [1][5][6]
California and Florida have very similar sector rankings. Below are the sector breakdowns with oil and gas extraction explicitly includeddespit lying outside the top ten as requested.
Figures remain approximate and synthesized from recent BEA‑based and secondary compilations, so treat them as indicative ranges rather than precise point estimates. [9][10][11][12][13]
California sectors (with oil)
These magnitudes are consistent with California’s gross state product around the high‑3 to low‑4 trillion‑dollar range, with oil extraction contributing only a few billion dollars directly. [9][11][13][14]
| Rank* | Sector (approx. NAICS aggregate) | Approx. value (USD, billions) | Approx. share of state GDP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Professional & business services | ~550 | ~16% |
| 2 | Information | ~475 | ~14% |
| 3 | Finance, insurance, real estate, rental & leasing | ~450–500 (real estate ≈ 440–450) | ~13–15% |
| 4 | Manufacturing | ~400 | ~11% |
| 5 | Government & government enterprises | ~320–340 | ~9% |
| 6 | Health care & social assistance | ~270 | ~8% |
| 7 | Retail trade | ~210 | ~6% |
| 8 | Wholesale trade | ~200 | ~6% |
| 9 | Construction | ~170 | ~5% |
| 10 | Transportation, warehousing & utilities | ~150 | ~4% |
| — | Oil and gas extraction (NAICS 211, subset of mining) | ≈5.3–5.8 | ≈0.1–0.2% |
Florida sectors (with oil)
| Rank* | Sector (approx. NAICS aggregate) | Approx. value (USD, billions) | Approx. share of state GDP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finance, insurance, real estate, rental & leasing | ~260–270 | ~16–17% |
| 2 | Professional & business services | ~200–210 | ~12–13% |
| 3 | Educational services, health care & social assistance | ~125–130 | ~7–8% |
| 4 | Government & government enterprises | ~120 | ~7% |
| 5 | Retail trade | ~105 | ~6–7% |
| 6 | Construction | ~95 | ~5–6% |
| 7 | Manufacturing | ~85 | ~5% |
| 8 | Accommodation, food services, leisure & hospitality | ~80 | ~5% |
| 9 | Transportation & warehousing | ~65 | ~4% |
| 10 | Wholesale trade | ~60 | ~3–4% |
| — | Mining, quarrying, & oil and gas extraction (NAICS 21, includes oil) | ≈1.0–1.3 | ≲0.1% |
Sources
Assembled with assistance of Perplexity.ai.
[1] What is the gross domestic product (GDP) in California? - USAFacts https://usafacts.org/answers/what-is-the-gross-domestic-product-gdp/state/california/
[2] What is the gross domestic product (GDP) in Florida? - USAFacts https://usafacts.org/answers/what-is-the-gross-domestic-product-gdp/state/florida/
[3] Gross Domestic Product: Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas ... - FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CAMINNGSP
[4] Gross Domestic Product: Oil and Gas Extraction (211) in California https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CAOILGASNGSP
[5] California's Economy - Public Policy Institute of California https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-economy/
[6] [PDF] Gross Domestic Product by State and Personal Income by State, 1st ... https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/stgdppi1q25.pdf
[7] Economy of California - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_California
[8] GDP by industry California U.S. 2023 - Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/304869/california-real-gdp-by-industry/
[9] GDP by Industry | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-industry
[10] Economy of Florida - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Florida
[11] Gross Domestic Product: All Industry Total in Florida (FLNGSP) - FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLNGSP
[12] Top U.S. States by Real GDP and Per Capita Real GDP https://perc.tamu.edu/blog/2024/02/gdp-vs-per-capita-gdp.html
[13] Real Gross Domestic Product: Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas ... https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLMINRQGSP
[14] FL, Mining, NSA, BEA - Economic Data Series | FRED | St. Louis Fed https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=bea%3Bfl%3Bmining%3Bnsa
[15] Gross Domestic Product: Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas ... - FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLMINNGSP
[16] Real Gross Domestic Product: Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas ... https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CAMINRQGSP
[17] GDP and Personal Income - Data Tools - Bureau of Economic Analysis https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=70&step=30&isuri=1&major_area=0&area=06000&year=2024&tableid=505&category=1505&area_type=0&year_end=-1&classification=naics&state=0&statistic=-1&yearbegin=-1&unit_of_measure=levels
[18] Gross Domestic Product: Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas ... - FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CAMINNQGSP
[19] Bureau of Economic Analysis - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 2019 https://www.arcgis.com/home/search.html?q=Bureau+Of+Economic+Analysis+BEA+Areas
[20] New Analysis: California's Abundant Natural Gas and Oil Resources ... https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/news/2023/05/16/api-pwc-ca-2023
[21] New Report on Oil and Gas in California: The Industry, Its Economic ... https://www.wspa.org/resource/laedc2025/
[22] SCB, GDP and Personal Income by County, May 2023 - Data Tools https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2023/05-may/0523-county-gdp.htm
[23] Chain-Type Quantity Index for Real GDP: Mining, Quarrying, and Oil ... https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=FLMINQQGSP
[24] Oil and Gas in California: The Industry, Its Economic Contribution ... https://skilledwork.org/dogwf-resource/oil-and-gas-in-california-the-industry-its-economic-contribution-and-major-user-industries-los-angeles-county-economic-development-corporation/
[25] Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction: NAICS 21 https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag21.htm
[26] California oil and gas industry - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_oil_and_gas_industry
[27] Mining, Quarrying, & Oil & Gas Extraction - Data USA https://datausa.io/profile/naics/mining-quarrying-oil-gas-extraction
[1] What is the gross domestic product (GDP) in California? - USAFacts https://usafacts.org/answers/what-is-the-gross-domestic-product-gdp/state/california/
[2] What is the gross domestic product (GDP) in Florida? - USAFacts https://usafacts.org/answers/what-is-the-gross-domestic-product-gdp/state/florida/
[3] Gross Domestic Product: Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas ... - FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CAMINNGSP
[4] Gross Domestic Product: Oil and Gas Extraction (211) in California https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CAOILGASNGSP
[5] California's Economy - Public Policy Institute of California https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-economy/
[6] [PDF] Gross Domestic Product by State and Personal Income by State, 1st ... https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/stgdppi1q25.pdf
[7] Economy of California - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_California
[8] GDP by industry California U.S. 2023 - Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/304869/california-real-gdp-by-industry/
[9] GDP by Industry | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-industry
[10] Economy of Florida - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Florida
[11] Gross Domestic Product: All Industry Total in Florida (FLNGSP) - FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLNGSP
[12] Top U.S. States by Real GDP and Per Capita Real GDP https://perc.tamu.edu/blog/2024/02/gdp-vs-per-capita-gdp.html
[13] Real Gross Domestic Product: Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas ... https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLMINRQGSP
[14] FL, Mining, NSA, BEA - Economic Data Series | FRED | St. Louis Fed https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=bea%3Bfl%3Bmining%3Bnsa
[15] Gross Domestic Product: Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas ... - FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLMINNGSP
[16] Real Gross Domestic Product: Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas ... https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CAMINRQGSP
[17] GDP and Personal Income - Data Tools - Bureau of Economic Analysis https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=70&step=30&isuri=1&major_area=0&area=06000&year=2024&tableid=505&category=1505&area_type=0&year_end=-1&classification=naics&state=0&statistic=-1&yearbegin=-1&unit_of_measure=levels
[18] Gross Domestic Product: Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas ... - FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CAMINNQGSP
[19] Bureau of Economic Analysis - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 2019 https://www.arcgis.com/home/search.html?q=Bureau+Of+Economic+Analysis+BEA+Areas
[20] New Analysis: California's Abundant Natural Gas and Oil Resources ... https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/news/2023/05/16/api-pwc-ca-2023
[21] New Report on Oil and Gas in California: The Industry, Its Economic ... https://www.wspa.org/resource/laedc2025/
[22] SCB, GDP and Personal Income by County, May 2023 - Data Tools https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2023/05-may/0523-county-gdp.htm
[23] Chain-Type Quantity Index for Real GDP: Mining, Quarrying, and Oil ... https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=FLMINQQGSP
[24] Oil and Gas in California: The Industry, Its Economic Contribution ... https://skilledwork.org/dogwf-resource/oil-and-gas-in-california-the-industry-its-economic-contribution-and-major-user-industries-los-angeles-county-economic-development-corporation/
[25] Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction: NAICS 21 https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag21.htm
[26] California oil and gas industry - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_oil_and_gas_industry
[27] Mining, Quarrying, & Oil & Gas Extraction - Data USA https://datausa.io/profile/naics/mining-quarrying-oil-gas-extraction
