August 20, 2025 |
I'll have a pint of your very best!
Middle East Water Plan
A hypothetical, brotherly approach to Middle East Peace
August 20, 2025
Regional History
Regional history goes here. Mostly these people hate each other and behave badly.
The Consumers
The combined population estimates for Lebanon, Jordan, Gaza, the "East Bank" (Jordan Valley), and Israel proper in 2025 are as follows:
- Lebanon: 5,097,604[1]
- Jordan: 10,662,121[2]
- Gaza Strip: 2,326,000 (UN/World Bank estimates for territory population, not just Gaza City)[3]
- "East Bank" (Jordan Valley): 78,000 (combined Palestinians and settlers)[4][5]
- Israel proper (excluding occupied territories): 9,448,781[6]
- The "east bank" area commonly refers to the Jordan Valley in the eastern West Bank, which is partially occupied and administered by Israel. Most of each group spend a lot of time complaining about the other. As of 2025:
-- **Palestinian population** in the Jordan Valley is approximately 65,000[1][2].
-- **Israeli settler population** in the same area is estimated at about 13,000 to 13,000+[1][2].
This brings the total population in the Jordan Valley—referred to here as the "east bank" area occupied by Israel—to around **78,000 people**: roughly 65,000 Palestinians and 13,000 Israeli settlers as of the latest public reports[1][2].
Adding these figures without double-counting any disputed or overlapping areas, the total combined population is approximately **27,612,506**.
- Lebanon: 5,097,604[1]
- Jordan: 10,662,121[2]
- Gaza Strip: 2,326,000 (UN/World Bank estimates for territory population, not just Gaza City)[3]
- "East Bank" (Jordan Valley): 78,000 (combined Palestinians and settlers)[4][5]
- Israel proper (excluding occupied territories): 9,448,781[6]
- The "east bank" area commonly refers to the Jordan Valley in the eastern West Bank, which is partially occupied and administered by Israel. Most of each group spend a lot of time complaining about the other. As of 2025:
-- **Palestinian population** in the Jordan Valley is approximately 65,000[1][2].
-- **Israeli settler population** in the same area is estimated at about 13,000 to 13,000+[1][2].
This brings the total population in the Jordan Valley—referred to here as the "east bank" area occupied by Israel—to around **78,000 people**: roughly 65,000 Palestinians and 13,000 Israeli settlers as of the latest public reports[1][2].
Adding these figures without double-counting any disputed or overlapping areas, the total combined population is approximately **27,612,506**.
The Crazy Scheme
Bear with me here.
Suppose they all got together to solve a common problem, agreeing only that they wouldn't blow up stuff that belonged to all in common. No one would be obliged to say nice things about the neighbors, of course.
There's more, to be sure, but that alone would be a big deal.
As it happens they have one thing in common: They're all thirsty.
They're thirsty for water, of course; it's largely a desert. That causes a lot of friction, even setting aside a lot of unfortunate history combined with bigotry and intolerance all around (they keep those stored in large undeground warehouses; they just don't talk about it much).
Beyond Water
They're thirsty for other things, also.
Acknowledgement
Respect
Opportunity
Freedom
(Build this)
Suppose they all got together to solve a common problem, agreeing only that they wouldn't blow up stuff that belonged to all in common. No one would be obliged to say nice things about the neighbors, of course.
There's more, to be sure, but that alone would be a big deal.
As it happens they have one thing in common: They're all thirsty.
They're thirsty for water, of course; it's largely a desert. That causes a lot of friction, even setting aside a lot of unfortunate history combined with bigotry and intolerance all around (they keep those stored in large undeground warehouses; they just don't talk about it much).
Beyond Water
They're thirsty for other things, also.
Acknowledgement
Respect
Opportunity
Freedom
(Build this)
The Producers
Well, OK, the potential producers.
Initial query: What would be the cost and lead time necessary to produce 400 l of water daily for each of 2.3 million people from the mediterranean using reverse osmosis?
Here is a clear breakdown of costs and timeline to produce **400 liters per day for each of 2.3 million people** (total 920,000m³/day) from the Mediterranean using reverse osmosis, assuming a **completely undeveloped (tabula rasa) construction site**:
***
### 1. Development Costs
- **Scope:** Feasibility studies, environmental assessment, regulatory permits, detailed design, land acquisition.
- **Estimate:** **$69 million** (approximately 5% of midpoint construction cost).
- **Timeline:** 1–2 years (often overlaps with early construction/preparation[1][2]).
***
### 2. Construction Costs (Capital Expenditure)
- **Scope:** All physical infrastructure, desalination plant, pipelines, seawater intakes, brine discharge systems, power connections, site works.
- **Estimate:**
- **Low:** $920 million
- **High:** $1.84 billion
(Based on $1,000–$2,000 per m³/day of installed capacity for large greenfield Mediterranean projects[2][3][4][5].)
- **Timeline:** 2–5 years after permitting, depending on site complexity and project phasing.
***
### 3. Operating Costs (OPEX)
- **Scope:** Electricity, staff, chemicals, maintenance, replacement parts, consumables, brine disposal.
- **Estimate:**
- **Annual:** $352.6 million (using $1.05 per m³, a median for Mediterranean RO plants[6][7][8]).
- **10-Year Total:** $3.53 billion
***
### Timeline Summary
- **Development:** 1–2 years
- **Construction:** 2–5 years (after/permitting phase)
- **Plant Live Lifetime (operation):** 10 years minimum (plants typically last 20–30+ years with major refits)
***
| Item | Value/Range | Notes |
|------------------|-----------------------|-------------------------------------------------|
| Daily capacity | 920,000 m³ | 400L × 2.3M people |
| Development | $69 million | Feasibility, design, permits |
| Construction | $920 million–1.84 billion | Greenfield site, full buildout |
| Operating (annual) | $352.6 million | At $1.05/m³ |
| Operating (10 yrs) | $3.53 billion | |
| Lead Time | 3–7 years total | Development + full construction |
***
**In summary:**
For a brand new, major RO desalination project producing 400L daily for each of 2.3 million people, expect about $69 million for development, $920 million–$1.84 billion for construction, and $3.53 billion for 10 years of operation[6][4][2][7][5][3][8].
Lead time is approximately 3–7 years from project initiation to full operation.
Here is a clear breakdown of costs and timeline to produce **400 liters per day for each of 2.3 million people** (total 920,000m³/day) from the Mediterranean using reverse osmosis, assuming a **completely undeveloped (tabula rasa) construction site**:
***
### 1. Development Costs
- **Scope:** Feasibility studies, environmental assessment, regulatory permits, detailed design, land acquisition.
- **Estimate:** **$69 million** (approximately 5% of midpoint construction cost).
- **Timeline:** 1–2 years (often overlaps with early construction/preparation[1][2]).
***
### 2. Construction Costs (Capital Expenditure)
- **Scope:** All physical infrastructure, desalination plant, pipelines, seawater intakes, brine discharge systems, power connections, site works.
- **Estimate:**
- **Low:** $920 million
- **High:** $1.84 billion
(Based on $1,000–$2,000 per m³/day of installed capacity for large greenfield Mediterranean projects[2][3][4][5].)
- **Timeline:** 2–5 years after permitting, depending on site complexity and project phasing.
***
### 3. Operating Costs (OPEX)
- **Scope:** Electricity, staff, chemicals, maintenance, replacement parts, consumables, brine disposal.
- **Estimate:**
- **Annual:** $352.6 million (using $1.05 per m³, a median for Mediterranean RO plants[6][7][8]).
- **10-Year Total:** $3.53 billion
***
### Timeline Summary
- **Development:** 1–2 years
- **Construction:** 2–5 years (after/permitting phase)
- **Plant Live Lifetime (operation):** 10 years minimum (plants typically last 20–30+ years with major refits)
***
| Item | Value/Range | Notes |
|------------------|-----------------------|-------------------------------------------------|
| Daily capacity | 920,000 m³ | 400L × 2.3M people |
| Development | $69 million | Feasibility, design, permits |
| Construction | $920 million–1.84 billion | Greenfield site, full buildout |
| Operating (annual) | $352.6 million | At $1.05/m³ |
| Operating (10 yrs) | $3.53 billion | |
| Lead Time | 3–7 years total | Development + full construction |
***
**In summary:**
For a brand new, major RO desalination project producing 400L daily for each of 2.3 million people, expect about $69 million for development, $920 million–$1.84 billion for construction, and $3.53 billion for 10 years of operation[6][4][2][7][5][3][8].
Lead time is approximately 3–7 years from project initiation to full operation.
