August 17, 2025 |
And the voice of AI was heard in the land
Securities Price Projections Experiment Continues
How are the markets moving?
August 17, 2025
As an experiment in artificial intelligence, we've asked Perplexity.ai to spend a few milliseconds considering the future of personal finance for persons of age 25 and 50. We plan to repeat the query at intervals and submit the results for your consideration. Tune in periodically for a running project in which we'll see how projections evolve over time and how prior projections compare to current realities. Use the in-page links to jump to the age groups.
Here's our standard query.
We then repeat for a 50-year-old person. For each group the newest reports will appear first.
Act as an economic analyst for a major personal finance consultancy. Consider the performance of S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000. Summarize the projected growth of these four market valuations over the next ten years as analyzed by up to 30 leading analysts. Add to the summary a brief comparison of comparable indices from Europe and Asia. Suggest a ten-year investment strategy for a 25-year-old person with a goal of funding a 20-year retirement commencing at age 60 given this analysis assuming average risk tolerance and an equal balance between growth and income stocks.
We then repeat for a 50-year-old person. For each group the newest reports will appear first.
In your 20s
Sunday, August 17, 2025
**Summary (100 words):**
Leading analysts project that over the next ten years, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 will each deliver average annualized total returns of 6%–10%. Comparable European indices are forecast to grow at 5%–7% annually, while Asia-Pacific indices are expected to return 6%–9%. For a 25-year-old investor planning for retirement, this broad, long-term growth outlook supports an aggressive diversification strategy, emphasizing global equities balanced between growth (technology, small caps, emerging markets) and income (dividends, value stocks), with limited fixed income allocation for downside risk protection and rebalancing flexibility.
***
### U.S. Market Outlook (2025–2035)
- **S&P 500:**
Annual returns projected at **7%–10%**, driven by consistent earnings, technology leadership, and dividend growth[1][2][3].
- **Dow Jones Industrial Average:**
Expected to return **6%–9%** annually, benefiting from blue-chip resilience, sector diversity, and strong income contributions[4].
- **Nasdaq Composite:**
Anticipated to deliver **8%–11%** annualized returns, propelled by tech sector expansion and innovation, though with higher volatility[5][4].
- **Russell 2000:**
Forecast at **6%–9%** per year, offering small-cap growth potential with higher risk; suitable for a long investment horizon[4].
***
### International Comparison: Europe and Asia
- **Europe (STOXX 600, MSCI Europe):**
Projected returns of **5%–7%** yearly; generally offers higher average dividends but historically slower growth compared to U.S. benchmarks. Improving valuations, but fewer high-growth sectors[6][7].
- **Asia-Pacific (MSCI Asia ex-Japan, regional indices):**
Expected **6%–9%** growth; led by dynamic economies like India and Southeast Asia, with China offering mixed prospects. Potential for higher long-term returns and portfolio diversification[8][9].
***
### Ten-Year Retirement Strategy for a 25-Year-Old (Average Risk, Growth/Income Balance)
- **Asset Allocation:**
- **80% Equities | 20% Bonds/Cash** (reflecting long horizon and higher risk tolerance)
- Within equities:
- 30% U.S. large-cap (S&P 500, Dow) for stability and dividends
- 20% U.S. tech/growth (Nasdaq) for capital appreciation
- 15% U.S. small/mid-cap (Russell 2000) for enhanced growth
- 25% International (Europe, Asia-Pacific, emerging markets) for diversification and broad opportunity
- Within bonds/cash: Focus on high-quality, short-to-intermediate-term instruments for liquidity and volatility management
- **Income and Growth Blending:**
Choose ETFs or mutual funds that combine dividend-growth, value, and growth stocks within both U.S. and international allocations.
Reinvest dividends to maximize compounding in early years; shift slightly toward higher income allocation with age.
- **Risk Controls:**
Maintain diversification across regions and sectors; utilize automatic rebalancing annually to manage drift and lock in gains during strong years.
- **Review and Adjust:**
Annually reassess allocations based on changing personal circumstances, risk tolerance, and evolving market trends—but avoid frequent, emotional trading.
This approach positions a 25-year-old investor for strong, inflation-beating growth while cultivating income streams and managing risk—maximizing the potential for a substantial retirement nest egg over the long term[4][10][11].
Sources
[1] The S&P 500 is forecast to return 10% in 2025 - Goldman Sachs https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-s-and-p-500-is-forecast-to-return-10-percent-in-2025
[2] S&P 500 Average Returns and Historical Performance - Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp
[3] S&P 500 CY 2025 Earnings Preview - FactSet Insight https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-cy-2025-earnings-preview-analysts-expect-earnings-growth-of-15
[4] Schwab's 2025 Long-Term Capital Market Expectations https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/schwabs-long-term-capital-market-expectations
[5] A Bullish Nasdaq Prediction 2025 Based On The 20-Year Nasdaq ... https://investinghaven.com/markets-stocks/nasdaq-long-term-chart-20-years/
[6] European stocks' 2025 outperformance is over, but don't forget the ... https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/european-stocks-2025-outperformance-is-over-dont-forget-euro-2025-07-07/
[7] Can European Stocks Keep Beating US Markets in 2025? https://global.morningstar.com/en-gb/stocks/are-european-stocks-new-must-have-investors
[8] Asia Pacific Stock Industry Report 2025 | Market Size 838.4 USD ... https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/regional-analysis/asia-pacific-stock-market-report
[9] Emerging market returns forecast to outpace the US over the next 10 ... https://www.trustnet.com/news/13411352/emerging-market-returns-forecast-to-outpace-the-us-over-the-next-10-years
[10] The global 60/40 portfolio: Steady as it goes - Vanguard https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/global-60-40-portfolio-steady-as-it-goes.html
[11] Oldie But Goodie: Global Balanced Portfolio - Russell Investments https://russellinvestments.com/us/blog/global-balanced-portfolio
Leading analysts project that over the next ten years, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 will each deliver average annualized total returns of 6%–10%. Comparable European indices are forecast to grow at 5%–7% annually, while Asia-Pacific indices are expected to return 6%–9%. For a 25-year-old investor planning for retirement, this broad, long-term growth outlook supports an aggressive diversification strategy, emphasizing global equities balanced between growth (technology, small caps, emerging markets) and income (dividends, value stocks), with limited fixed income allocation for downside risk protection and rebalancing flexibility.
***
### U.S. Market Outlook (2025–2035)
- **S&P 500:**
Annual returns projected at **7%–10%**, driven by consistent earnings, technology leadership, and dividend growth[1][2][3].
- **Dow Jones Industrial Average:**
Expected to return **6%–9%** annually, benefiting from blue-chip resilience, sector diversity, and strong income contributions[4].
- **Nasdaq Composite:**
Anticipated to deliver **8%–11%** annualized returns, propelled by tech sector expansion and innovation, though with higher volatility[5][4].
- **Russell 2000:**
Forecast at **6%–9%** per year, offering small-cap growth potential with higher risk; suitable for a long investment horizon[4].
***
### International Comparison: Europe and Asia
- **Europe (STOXX 600, MSCI Europe):**
Projected returns of **5%–7%** yearly; generally offers higher average dividends but historically slower growth compared to U.S. benchmarks. Improving valuations, but fewer high-growth sectors[6][7].
- **Asia-Pacific (MSCI Asia ex-Japan, regional indices):**
Expected **6%–9%** growth; led by dynamic economies like India and Southeast Asia, with China offering mixed prospects. Potential for higher long-term returns and portfolio diversification[8][9].
***
### Ten-Year Retirement Strategy for a 25-Year-Old (Average Risk, Growth/Income Balance)
- **Asset Allocation:**
- **80% Equities | 20% Bonds/Cash** (reflecting long horizon and higher risk tolerance)
- Within equities:
- 30% U.S. large-cap (S&P 500, Dow) for stability and dividends
- 20% U.S. tech/growth (Nasdaq) for capital appreciation
- 15% U.S. small/mid-cap (Russell 2000) for enhanced growth
- 25% International (Europe, Asia-Pacific, emerging markets) for diversification and broad opportunity
- Within bonds/cash: Focus on high-quality, short-to-intermediate-term instruments for liquidity and volatility management
- **Income and Growth Blending:**
Choose ETFs or mutual funds that combine dividend-growth, value, and growth stocks within both U.S. and international allocations.
Reinvest dividends to maximize compounding in early years; shift slightly toward higher income allocation with age.
- **Risk Controls:**
Maintain diversification across regions and sectors; utilize automatic rebalancing annually to manage drift and lock in gains during strong years.
- **Review and Adjust:**
Annually reassess allocations based on changing personal circumstances, risk tolerance, and evolving market trends—but avoid frequent, emotional trading.
This approach positions a 25-year-old investor for strong, inflation-beating growth while cultivating income streams and managing risk—maximizing the potential for a substantial retirement nest egg over the long term[4][10][11].
Sources
[1] The S&P 500 is forecast to return 10% in 2025 - Goldman Sachs https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-s-and-p-500-is-forecast-to-return-10-percent-in-2025
[2] S&P 500 Average Returns and Historical Performance - Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp
[3] S&P 500 CY 2025 Earnings Preview - FactSet Insight https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-cy-2025-earnings-preview-analysts-expect-earnings-growth-of-15
[4] Schwab's 2025 Long-Term Capital Market Expectations https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/schwabs-long-term-capital-market-expectations
[5] A Bullish Nasdaq Prediction 2025 Based On The 20-Year Nasdaq ... https://investinghaven.com/markets-stocks/nasdaq-long-term-chart-20-years/
[6] European stocks' 2025 outperformance is over, but don't forget the ... https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/european-stocks-2025-outperformance-is-over-dont-forget-euro-2025-07-07/
[7] Can European Stocks Keep Beating US Markets in 2025? https://global.morningstar.com/en-gb/stocks/are-european-stocks-new-must-have-investors
[8] Asia Pacific Stock Industry Report 2025 | Market Size 838.4 USD ... https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/regional-analysis/asia-pacific-stock-market-report
[9] Emerging market returns forecast to outpace the US over the next 10 ... https://www.trustnet.com/news/13411352/emerging-market-returns-forecast-to-outpace-the-us-over-the-next-10-years
[10] The global 60/40 portfolio: Steady as it goes - Vanguard https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/global-60-40-portfolio-steady-as-it-goes.html
[11] Oldie But Goodie: Global Balanced Portfolio - Russell Investments https://russellinvestments.com/us/blog/global-balanced-portfolio
In your 50s
Sunday, August 17, 2025
**Summary (100 words):**
For a 50-year-old investor with average risk tolerance and a balanced growth/income objective, major analysts project the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 will offer annualized returns of 6%–10% over the next decade. European indices are expected to grow at 5%–7%, and Asia-Pacific indices at 6%–9%. With a shorter time horizon to retirement, a 50-year-old should prioritize capital preservation and income—tilting the portfolio toward higher-quality dividend stocks, value equities, and increasing fixed income. International diversification remains important, but should be carefully balanced to manage risk and volatility as retirement approaches.
***
### U.S. Market Outlook (2025–2035)
- **S&P 500:**
Projected annual returns of **7%–10%** from blue-chip stability, steady earnings, and dividend growth[1][2][3].
- **Dow Jones Industrial Average:**
Expected to yield **6%–9%** annually, offering solid dividends and reduced volatility[4].
- **Nasdaq Composite:**
Forecast at **8%–11%** annual returns; consider as a growth allocation but limit exposure to control volatility as retirement nears[5][4].
- **Russell 2000:**
Anticipated **6%–9%** returns, but with higher risk; use sparingly to complement overall growth[4].
***
### International Comparison: Europe and Asia
- **Europe (STOXX 600, MSCI Europe):**
Analysts expect **5%–7%** returns, with competitive dividend yields but less explosive growth potential than the U.S. or emerging Asia[6][7].
- **Asia-Pacific:**
Projected **6%–9%** growth, led by India and the Pacific Rim; valuable for long-term diversification but moderate the allocation for risk control[8][9].
***
### Ten-Year Retirement Strategy for a 50-Year-Old (Average Risk, Growth/Income Balance)
- **Asset Allocation:**
- **55%–60% Equities | 40%–45% Bonds/Cash** (reflects a shorter time frame and greater need for preservation and income)
- Within equities:
- 25% U.S. large-cap (S&P 500, Dow) for stability and dividends
- 10%–12% U.S. tech/growth (Nasdaq) for added growth potential
- 5%–8% U.S. small/mid-cap (Russell 2000)
- 15%–18% international developed markets (Europe, Asia-Pacific); 5% emerging markets
- Within fixed income: Utilize a mix of US Treasuries, investment-grade bonds, and global bond funds for safety and income
- **Income Focus:**
Overweight high-quality dividend-paying stocks/ETFs and bond ladders; consider adding REITs or utility stocks for income stability.
- **Risk Controls:**
Annually rebalance to reduce equity as retirement approaches; tilt gradually from growth to income and capital preservation assets.
- **Ongoing Review:**
Review allocations each year, adjust to evolving circumstances and market changes, and ensure cash reserves are on track for planned retirement withdrawals.
This approach provides a prudent blend of long-term growth, inflation protection, and rising income—aimed at supporting a comfortable, resilient retirement starting from age 60 or 65[4][10][11].
Sources
[1] The S&P 500 is forecast to return 10% in 2025 - Goldman Sachs https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-s-and-p-500-is-forecast-to-return-10-percent-in-2025
[2] S&P 500 Average Returns and Historical Performance - Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp
[3] S&P 500 CY 2025 Earnings Preview - FactSet Insight https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-cy-2025-earnings-preview-analysts-expect-earnings-growth-of-15
[4] Schwab's 2025 Long-Term Capital Market Expectations https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/schwabs-long-term-capital-market-expectations
[5] A Bullish Nasdaq Prediction 2025 Based On The 20-Year Nasdaq ... https://investinghaven.com/markets-stocks/nasdaq-long-term-chart-20-years/
[6] European stocks' 2025 outperformance is over, but don't forget the ... https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/european-stocks-2025-outperformance-is-over-dont-forget-euro-2025-07-07/
[7] Can European Stocks Keep Beating US Markets in 2025? https://global.morningstar.com/en-gb/stocks/are-european-stocks-new-must-have-investors
[8] Asia Pacific Stock Industry Report 2025 | Market Size 838.4 USD ... https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/regional-analysis/asia-pacific-stock-market-report
[9] Emerging market returns forecast to outpace the US over the next 10 ... https://www.trustnet.com/news/13411352/emerging-market-returns-forecast-to-outpace-the-us-over-the-next-10-years
[10] The global 60/40 portfolio: Steady as it goes - Vanguard https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/global-60-40-portfolio-steady-as-it-goes.html
[11] Oldie But Goodie: Global Balanced Portfolio - Russell Investments https://russellinvestments.com/us/blog/global-balanced-portfolio
For a 50-year-old investor with average risk tolerance and a balanced growth/income objective, major analysts project the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 will offer annualized returns of 6%–10% over the next decade. European indices are expected to grow at 5%–7%, and Asia-Pacific indices at 6%–9%. With a shorter time horizon to retirement, a 50-year-old should prioritize capital preservation and income—tilting the portfolio toward higher-quality dividend stocks, value equities, and increasing fixed income. International diversification remains important, but should be carefully balanced to manage risk and volatility as retirement approaches.
***
### U.S. Market Outlook (2025–2035)
- **S&P 500:**
Projected annual returns of **7%–10%** from blue-chip stability, steady earnings, and dividend growth[1][2][3].
- **Dow Jones Industrial Average:**
Expected to yield **6%–9%** annually, offering solid dividends and reduced volatility[4].
- **Nasdaq Composite:**
Forecast at **8%–11%** annual returns; consider as a growth allocation but limit exposure to control volatility as retirement nears[5][4].
- **Russell 2000:**
Anticipated **6%–9%** returns, but with higher risk; use sparingly to complement overall growth[4].
***
### International Comparison: Europe and Asia
- **Europe (STOXX 600, MSCI Europe):**
Analysts expect **5%–7%** returns, with competitive dividend yields but less explosive growth potential than the U.S. or emerging Asia[6][7].
- **Asia-Pacific:**
Projected **6%–9%** growth, led by India and the Pacific Rim; valuable for long-term diversification but moderate the allocation for risk control[8][9].
***
### Ten-Year Retirement Strategy for a 50-Year-Old (Average Risk, Growth/Income Balance)
- **Asset Allocation:**
- **55%–60% Equities | 40%–45% Bonds/Cash** (reflects a shorter time frame and greater need for preservation and income)
- Within equities:
- 25% U.S. large-cap (S&P 500, Dow) for stability and dividends
- 10%–12% U.S. tech/growth (Nasdaq) for added growth potential
- 5%–8% U.S. small/mid-cap (Russell 2000)
- 15%–18% international developed markets (Europe, Asia-Pacific); 5% emerging markets
- Within fixed income: Utilize a mix of US Treasuries, investment-grade bonds, and global bond funds for safety and income
- **Income Focus:**
Overweight high-quality dividend-paying stocks/ETFs and bond ladders; consider adding REITs or utility stocks for income stability.
- **Risk Controls:**
Annually rebalance to reduce equity as retirement approaches; tilt gradually from growth to income and capital preservation assets.
- **Ongoing Review:**
Review allocations each year, adjust to evolving circumstances and market changes, and ensure cash reserves are on track for planned retirement withdrawals.
This approach provides a prudent blend of long-term growth, inflation protection, and rising income—aimed at supporting a comfortable, resilient retirement starting from age 60 or 65[4][10][11].
Sources
[1] The S&P 500 is forecast to return 10% in 2025 - Goldman Sachs https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-s-and-p-500-is-forecast-to-return-10-percent-in-2025
[2] S&P 500 Average Returns and Historical Performance - Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp
[3] S&P 500 CY 2025 Earnings Preview - FactSet Insight https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-cy-2025-earnings-preview-analysts-expect-earnings-growth-of-15
[4] Schwab's 2025 Long-Term Capital Market Expectations https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/schwabs-long-term-capital-market-expectations
[5] A Bullish Nasdaq Prediction 2025 Based On The 20-Year Nasdaq ... https://investinghaven.com/markets-stocks/nasdaq-long-term-chart-20-years/
[6] European stocks' 2025 outperformance is over, but don't forget the ... https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/european-stocks-2025-outperformance-is-over-dont-forget-euro-2025-07-07/
[7] Can European Stocks Keep Beating US Markets in 2025? https://global.morningstar.com/en-gb/stocks/are-european-stocks-new-must-have-investors
[8] Asia Pacific Stock Industry Report 2025 | Market Size 838.4 USD ... https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/regional-analysis/asia-pacific-stock-market-report
[9] Emerging market returns forecast to outpace the US over the next 10 ... https://www.trustnet.com/news/13411352/emerging-market-returns-forecast-to-outpace-the-us-over-the-next-10-years
[10] The global 60/40 portfolio: Steady as it goes - Vanguard https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/global-60-40-portfolio-steady-as-it-goes.html
[11] Oldie But Goodie: Global Balanced Portfolio - Russell Investments https://russellinvestments.com/us/blog/global-balanced-portfolio
