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December 2, 2025 |
Who's in charge here?
GDP, Productivity and Wage Growth 2016-2025
December 2, 2025
U.S. Economic Indicators 2016–2025: Real GDP, Productivity & Wage Growth.
I must admit this is something of the lazy man's research project. However, it's kindasorta hard to make a case for the policies of the late-teen years or 2025 as the way forward.
Key Insights
Real GDP (2016–2025, chained 2017 dollars):
- Total cumulative growth: **31.8%**
- CAGR: **3.12%**
- 2020 was the only contraction year (−1.8%) due to pandemic
- 2021 saw exceptional recovery (+12.6%)
- Growth has moderated 2024–2025 (0.4% → 0.9%)
Productivity (Business Sector, 2017=100):
- Total increase: **18.7%** (2016: 97.5 → 2025: 115.7)
- CAGR: **1.92%**
- Note: 2020 spike (109.0) reflects composition effect and temporary layoffs of lower-paid workers
- Recent acceleration in 2024–2025 (114.9 → 115.7)
Wages & Salaries:
- Cumulative growth (compounded): **36.6%**
- Average annual: **3.40%**
- Peak growth: **5.0% in 2022** (post-pandemic compensation surge)
- **2025 YTD: 3.6%** (moderating)
Wage vs. Productivity:
- Wages have grown **18.0 percentage points faster** than productivity over the full period (36.6% vs. 18.7%)
- This reverses historical patterns where productivity growth often outpaced wage growth
- Peak divergence occurred 2021–2022 during tight labor markets and inflation adjustments
I must admit this is something of the lazy man's research project. However, it's kindasorta hard to make a case for the policies of the late-teen years or 2025 as the way forward.
Key Insights
Real GDP (2016–2025, chained 2017 dollars):
- Total cumulative growth: **31.8%**
- CAGR: **3.12%**
- 2020 was the only contraction year (−1.8%) due to pandemic
- 2021 saw exceptional recovery (+12.6%)
- Growth has moderated 2024–2025 (0.4% → 0.9%)
Productivity (Business Sector, 2017=100):
- Total increase: **18.7%** (2016: 97.5 → 2025: 115.7)
- CAGR: **1.92%**
- Note: 2020 spike (109.0) reflects composition effect and temporary layoffs of lower-paid workers
- Recent acceleration in 2024–2025 (114.9 → 115.7)
Wages & Salaries:
- Cumulative growth (compounded): **36.6%**
- Average annual: **3.40%**
- Peak growth: **5.0% in 2022** (post-pandemic compensation surge)
- **2025 YTD: 3.6%** (moderating)
Wage vs. Productivity:
- Wages have grown **18.0 percentage points faster** than productivity over the full period (36.6% vs. 18.7%)
- This reverses historical patterns where productivity growth often outpaced wage growth
- Peak divergence occurred 2021–2022 during tight labor markets and inflation adjustments
Tabulated Data
| Metric \ Year | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (proj.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP (B$ 2017) | 19,103.5 | 19,520.1 | 20,148.2 | 20,807.6 | 20,431.5 | 22,997.6 | 23,940.0 | 24,842.9 | 24,952.6 | 25,180.0 |
| % change from prior year | — | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | -1.8% | 12.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% |
| Running 3-year avg % change | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Total % change vs 2016 | 0.0% | 2.2% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 20.4% | 25.3% | 30.0% | 30.6% | 31.8% |
| Productivity index (2017=100) | 97.5 | 100.0 | 101.4 | 103.6 | 109.0 | 111.3 | 109.8 | 111.9 | 114.9 | 115.7 |
| Output per worker (2017=100) | 97.9 | 100.0 | 103.2 | 106.6 | 104.7 | 117.8 | 122.6 | 127.3 | 127.8 | 129.0 |
| Wages & salaries % change | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% |
Sources
Sources, including partial results from Perplexity inquiry.
[1] Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1) | FRED | St. Louis Fed https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1
[2] Chained real GDP U.S. 2024 - Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/188141/annual-real-gdp-of-the-united-states-since-1990-in-chained-us-dollars/
[3] Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1 - Data Tools https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=70&step=30&isuri=1&year_end=-1&classification=non-industry&state=0&yearbegin=-1&unit_of_measure=levels&major_area=0&area=xx&year=-1&tableid=532&category=5532&area_type=0&statistic=1
[4] Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPCA) - ALFRED | St. Louis Fed https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=GDPCA
[5] United States GDP - Trading Economics https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp
[6] Productivity up 2.3 percent in 2024 - Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2025/productivity-up-2-3-percent-in-2024.htm
[7] Compensation costs up 3.6 percent from March 2024 to March 2025 https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2025/compensation-costs-up-3-6-percent-from-march-2024-to-march-2025.htm
[8] Gross Domestic Product | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
[9] [PDF] Productivity and Costs, Second Quarter 2025, Revised (PDF) https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/prod2.pdf
[10] Compensation costs up 3.6 percent in 2024 : The Economics Daily https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2025/compensation-costs-up-3-6-percent-in-2024.htm
[11] GDP growth (annual %) - United States - World Bank Open Data https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=US
[12] Productivity Home Page : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/productivity/
[13] ECI Home : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/eci/
[14] United States GDP 1990-2024 - Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/188105/annual-gdp-of-the-united-states-since-1990/
[15] Total factor productivity, 2024 - Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod3.nr0.htm
[16] [PDF] Employment Cost Index – June 2025 - Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/eci.pdf
[17] Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPCA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPCA
[18] Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject https://www.bls.gov/data/
[19] Employment and Wages, Annual Averages 2024 https://www.bls.gov/cew/publications/employment-and-wages-annual-averages/current/
[20] The U.S. economy to 2024 : Monthly Labor Review https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/article/the-us-economy-to-2024.htm
[21] National Income and Product Accounts - Data Tools https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=3&isuri=1&categories=survey&nipa_table_list=6&Series=A&select_all_years=1
[22] Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1 - Data Tools https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=70&step=30&isuri=1&major_area=0&area=xx&year=-1&tableid=532&category=5532&area_type=0&year_end=-1&classification=non-industry&state=0&statistic=1&yearbegin=-1&unit_of_measure=levels
[23] United States Wages and Salaries Growth - Trading Economics https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth
[24] SAGDP9 Real GDP by state 1 - Data Tools https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=70&step=30&isuri=1&year_end=-1&classification=naics&state=0&yearbegin=-1&unit_of_measure=percentchange&major_area=0&area=04000&year=-1&tableid=512&category=1512&area_type=0&statistic=1&selected_income_data=0
[25] Labor productivity, output, and hours worked indexes, nonfarm ... https://www.bls.gov/charts/productivity-and-costs/nonfarm-business-sector-indexes.htm
[26] Real average weekly earnings up 1.5 percent from May 2024 to May ... https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2025/real-average-weekly-earnings-up-1-5-percent-from-may-2024-to-may-2025.htm
[27] Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers (OPHPBS) | FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHPBS
[28] Labor productivity indexes by industry - Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/charts/productivity-wholesale-retail/labor-productivity-indexes-by-industry.htm
[1] Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1) | FRED | St. Louis Fed https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1
[2] Chained real GDP U.S. 2024 - Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/188141/annual-real-gdp-of-the-united-states-since-1990-in-chained-us-dollars/
[3] Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1 - Data Tools https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=70&step=30&isuri=1&year_end=-1&classification=non-industry&state=0&yearbegin=-1&unit_of_measure=levels&major_area=0&area=xx&year=-1&tableid=532&category=5532&area_type=0&statistic=1
[4] Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPCA) - ALFRED | St. Louis Fed https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=GDPCA
[5] United States GDP - Trading Economics https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp
[6] Productivity up 2.3 percent in 2024 - Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2025/productivity-up-2-3-percent-in-2024.htm
[7] Compensation costs up 3.6 percent from March 2024 to March 2025 https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2025/compensation-costs-up-3-6-percent-from-march-2024-to-march-2025.htm
[8] Gross Domestic Product | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
[9] [PDF] Productivity and Costs, Second Quarter 2025, Revised (PDF) https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/prod2.pdf
[10] Compensation costs up 3.6 percent in 2024 : The Economics Daily https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2025/compensation-costs-up-3-6-percent-in-2024.htm
[11] GDP growth (annual %) - United States - World Bank Open Data https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=US
[12] Productivity Home Page : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/productivity/
[13] ECI Home : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/eci/
[14] United States GDP 1990-2024 - Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/188105/annual-gdp-of-the-united-states-since-1990/
[15] Total factor productivity, 2024 - Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod3.nr0.htm
[16] [PDF] Employment Cost Index – June 2025 - Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/eci.pdf
[17] Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPCA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPCA
[18] Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject https://www.bls.gov/data/
[19] Employment and Wages, Annual Averages 2024 https://www.bls.gov/cew/publications/employment-and-wages-annual-averages/current/
[20] The U.S. economy to 2024 : Monthly Labor Review https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/article/the-us-economy-to-2024.htm
[21] National Income and Product Accounts - Data Tools https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=3&isuri=1&categories=survey&nipa_table_list=6&Series=A&select_all_years=1
[22] Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1 - Data Tools https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=70&step=30&isuri=1&major_area=0&area=xx&year=-1&tableid=532&category=5532&area_type=0&year_end=-1&classification=non-industry&state=0&statistic=1&yearbegin=-1&unit_of_measure=levels
[23] United States Wages and Salaries Growth - Trading Economics https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth
[24] SAGDP9 Real GDP by state 1 - Data Tools https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=70&step=30&isuri=1&year_end=-1&classification=naics&state=0&yearbegin=-1&unit_of_measure=percentchange&major_area=0&area=04000&year=-1&tableid=512&category=1512&area_type=0&statistic=1&selected_income_data=0
[25] Labor productivity, output, and hours worked indexes, nonfarm ... https://www.bls.gov/charts/productivity-and-costs/nonfarm-business-sector-indexes.htm
[26] Real average weekly earnings up 1.5 percent from May 2024 to May ... https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2025/real-average-weekly-earnings-up-1-5-percent-from-may-2024-to-may-2025.htm
[27] Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers (OPHPBS) | FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHPBS
[28] Labor productivity indexes by industry - Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/charts/productivity-wholesale-retail/labor-productivity-indexes-by-industry.htm
